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The cyber insurance market is on track to more than double by 2030, according to a new report from Lockton Re. The global reinsurance firm warns that growth, while likely, will depend on major shifts in data quality, risk modeling, and product design.
In its white paper, Cyber Insurance 2030: Charting a Course for Growth, Lockton Re calls the market one of the “stand-out successes of property and casualty insurance in the last couple of decades.” The report cites years of compound annual growth rates above 20%, and at times over 30%, as evidence of resilience. Estimates put global premiums between $30 billion and $40 billion by 2030.
A Market at a Crossroads
“The cyber market is anticipated to more than double by 2030. Even conservative estimates suggest significant continued growth,” the report states. But Lockton Re cautions that the expansion is “not inevitable” and will instead rely on “a series of deliberate actions.”
The report draws on perspectives from across the industry. Executives and market analysts contributed views on a range of factors: capital supply, regulation, and distribution, framing the next decade as both promising and uncertain. The future is always uncertain.
Uneven Uptake
Adoption of cyber insurance is strongest among large corporations. Lockton Re notes that roughly 80% of companies with revenues above $10 billion already purchase cover. Among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), however, penetration is less than 10%.
Tom Draper, Managing Director for the UK at Coalition, tells the report: “Many SMEs do not think of cyber risk as an insurance challenge. It is up to us to reframe the conversation.”
Unlocking SME participation is a key growth lever. The report highlights innovations such as online direct sales, policy add-ons, and simplified underwriting.
Regulation Expands the Market
The study also examines the role of regulation in driving cyber insurance demand. From California’s 2003 data privacy law to sweeping new rules across Asia, regulation has consistently spurred uptake.
From the cyber insurance market in India to Japan, numerous notable examples of regulations exist that could drive market growth. These include China’s Personal Information Protection Law, India’s Digital Personal Data Protection Act, and updates to South Korea’s data regime. Japan is also undertaking a significant overhaul of its Act on Protection of Personal Information.
Lockton Re argues that “expanding the volume of new buyers is key” and that regulatory changes often spark demand among firms otherwise slow to adopt coverage.
Capital and Investor Confidence
Financing the market’s expansion presents another challenge. The report emphasizes the importance of insurance-linked securities (ILS) in supplying capital. Over twenty investors have backed cyber catastrophe bonds since 2023, making the asset class an emerging fixture of risk transfer.
Still, modeling uncertainty dampens enthusiasm. Unlike natural disaster risks, cyber exposures lack decades of historical data. “Cedants are testing their event definitions and calibrating their view of risk behind the scenes,” said Theo Norris, Cyber ILS Leader at Lockton Re Capital Markets.
Head of Capital Advisory Eric Paire added that investors “rely on the (re)insurance markets to develop and refine diversified strategies to support investment goals.”
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Three Priorities for Growth
- Better data – Capture higher quality underwriting and exposure data.
- Continued investment in models – Build robust systemic risk models despite limited precedents.
- Flexible product design – Adapt policies to meet the needs of diverse buyers.
The firm points out that cyber products have remained largely static for a decade, with incremental tweaks failing to match the pace of digital change. It suggests rethinking structures entirely, including bundling policies with cybersecurity tools and offering targeted coverage for specific exposures.
Optimism in a Complex Market
Despite the hurdles, Lockton Re maintains a positive outlook. “There are many reasons for continued optimism for the long-term robust health of the cyber insurance industry,” the report concludes.
Mark Greisiger, CEO of NetDiligence, reinforced that optimism: “Insurers are hiring technical underwriters, and account triage and efficiency are improving, which is a positive leading indicator.”
The message is clear: cyber insurance growth will not come automatically. As Lockton Re frames it, the market stands at a “dynamic crossroads,” where regulatory momentum, investor appetite, and industry innovation must align to sustain the next decade of expansion.
Other Cyber Insurance Market Update and Reports
| Source | Estimated 2024–2025 Base | Forecast Year | Forecasted Market Size | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gallagher | >$20B (2025; imputed) | 2032 | $120.47B | 24.5% |
| HTF | $12.3B (2025) | 2033 | $52.1B | 19.7% |
| MarketsandMarkets | $16.5B (2025) | 2030 | $32.2B | 14.2% |
| Munich Re | $15.3B (2024) | 2030 | “More than double” | >10% |
| Fortune Business Insights | $20.9B (2024) | 2032 | $120.5B | 24.5% |
| IMARC/InsuranceAsia | $14.2B (2024) | 2033 | $73.5B | 17.9% |
| Market.us | $13.3B (2023) | 2032 | $62.7B | 18.8% |
| SkyQuest | $16.8B (2024) | 2032 | $71.8B | ~18% |
| InsuranceNewsNet | $13.1B (2024) | 2032 | $68.4B | 22.9% |
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