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Think of these cybersecurity predictions like a city planner’s warning about a neighborhood with too many spare keys, too many new tools for thieves, and too many people leaving their windows open. Teenagers with lockpicks roam the alleys. Hackers use AI the way a magician uses sleight of hand. Some break in pretending to be repair crews. Others wave old keys and claim they’re new ones, creating noise that wastes everyone’s time. As Yogi Berra might say, “It’s déjà vu all over again.” Cybercrime keeps circling back to identity misuse, and SpyCloud’s new report, The Identity Security Reckoning: 2025 Lessons, 2026 Predictions, makes one thing clear. They want defenders ready when the cycle repeats. Is your cyber insurance policy ready?
“With the speed that technology moves, cybercrime evolves in lockstep and it’s equal parts fascinating to watch and challenging to keep up with,” said Trevor Hilligoss, SpyCloud’s Head of Security Research. “The commoditization and influence of the dark web will continue to complicate things, making 2026 another nonstop year for defenders.”
1. The Criminal Economy Will Expand
SpyCloud expects cybercrime to grow as industrialized services mimic legitimate startups. Malware-as-a-Service and Phishing-as-a-Service will dominate. New roles, such as access brokers and tool developers, will support large-scale attacks. Criminals will continue using infostealer malware and residential proxies to accelerate operations.
2. Younger Threat Actors Will Reshape Criminal Communities
Law-enforcement activity disrupted major darknet forums in 2025. Threat actors are moving to mainstream apps like X and WhatsApp. Younger cybercriminals are joining through simple attack kits that offer quick payouts. Chinese and Latin American cybercrime activity continues to grow. Global conflicts will also fuel more hacktivist operations.
3. Non-Human Identities Will Increase Risk
Non-human identities, such as API tokens and OAuth keys, will proliferate across cloud systems. These machine credentials lack common safeguards like MFA. SpyCloud found that corporate users hold an average of 146 exposed identity records. Identity sprawl will worsen in 2026 as AI and automation expand.
4. Insider Threats Will Surge
Insider threats now include compromised workers, negligent behavior, and fraudulent remote hires. Mergers and acquisitions increase access sprawl and inherited vulnerabilities. SpyCloud reports that 56% of organizations experienced insider-related incidents in the last year. Deepfake-enhanced hiring fraud will keep rising.
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5. AI-Enabled Attacks Will Accelerate
AI improves phishing, reconnaissance, and malware development. Attackers can craft persuasive messages that mimic real communication. SpyCloud analysts foresee AI-generated malware and automated spear-phishing in 2026. About 900,000 stolen credentials tied to enterprise AI tools were found in 2025.
6. MFA Bypass Techniques Will Spread
SpyCloud found that 66% of malware infections bypassed endpoint defenses in 2025. Attackers use stolen session cookies to hijack authenticated sessions. They also use residential proxies, anti-detect browsers, and Adversary-in-the-Middle tools. These tactics will push organizations to prioritize detection and rapid remediation.
7. Vendor Weaknesses Will Increase Supply Chain Risk
Third-party vendors continue to create identity risks. Verizon data cited by SpyCloud shows that 30% of breaches involve a partner or contractor. Telecom, IT, and software supply-chain partners face the greatest exposure. SpyCloud urges equal access rules for employees and contractors to reduce vulnerability.
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8. Synthetic Identities Will Become Harder to Detect
Synthetic identities built from stolen personal data will grow more sophisticated. Banks already rank this as a top fraud concern. Attackers combine leaked data with deepfakes and AI-generated personas. SpyCloud stresses that long-term breach histories help defenders spot suspicious accounts.
9. Megabreaches Will Distract Security Teams
SpyCloud warns that megabreach headlines often involve recycled data from older incidents. Combolists create unnecessary fear and drain team resources. Many of the records in these announcements are more than 5 years old. Teams must stay focused on immediate threats rather than hype cycles.
10. Security Teams Will Restructure Around Identity
Only 14% of organizations report having enough cybersecurity talent. SpyCloud expects more unified teams that blend SOC, identity, and threat intelligence functions. Automation and AI will support detection, background checks, and remediation. Consolidated IAM stacks will strengthen enterprise defenses.
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